Main
Welterweight
Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Page
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ian Machado Garry
Michael Page
61%
39%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
27
Age
Δ 11y
37
18-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
26-3
W7
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Machado Garry: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Page: 21 sig / 0 TD
Ian Machado Garry
Michael Page
55
Sig strikes landed
44
98
Sig strikes attempted
111
59
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
97s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
18-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Page
"Venom"
26-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—