Prelims1
Middleweight
Joe Pyfer vs Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Pyfer
Marc-Andre Barriault
80%
20%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
28
Age
Δ 7y
34
16-4
Career record
Δ 21 pp
17-12
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pyfer: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Barriault: 0 sig / 0 TD
Joe Pyfer
Marc-Andre Barriault
59
Sig strikes landed
53
133
Sig strikes attempted
95
66
Total strikes landed
68
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Pyfer
"Bodybagz"
16-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—