Back to UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Ricky Simon vs Vinicius Oliveira

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ricky Simon
Vinicius Oliveira
33% 67%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
22-8-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
24-4
L2
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Simon: 42 sig / 2 TD · Oliveira: 96 sig / 1 TD
Ricky Simon
Vinicius Oliveira
45
Sig strikes landed
55
112
Sig strikes attempted
116
60
Total strikes landed
80
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
155s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Ricky Simon

22-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
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L UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
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W UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
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W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
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W UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
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Blue corner
W1

Vinicius Oliveira

"LokDog"
24-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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