Back to UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Payton Talbott vs Yanis Ghemmouri

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Payton Talbott
Yanis Ghemmouri
69% 31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
26
Age
Δ 4y
29
12-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
12-4
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Talbott: 13 sig / 0 TD · Ghemmouri: 1 sig / 0 TD
Payton Talbott
Yanis Ghemmouri
50
Sig strikes landed
26
87
Sig strikes attempted
57
64
Total strikes landed
40
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
-0.10
184s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Payton Talbott

12-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
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W UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
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Blue corner
L1

Yanis Ghemmouri

"The Desert Warrior"
12-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
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