Back to UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Main Middleweight

Shara Magomedov vs Antonio Trocoli

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov ·Kingdom Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Shara Magomedov
Antonio Trocoli
80% 20%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 7"
80"
30
Age
Δ 3y
34
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Magomedov: 82 sig / 0 TD · Trocoli: 16 sig / 0 TD
Shara Magomedov
Antonio Trocoli
46
Sig strikes landed
58
96
Sig strikes attempted
120
74
Total strikes landed
59
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.70
Knockdowns
0.00
111s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Shara Magomedov

"Bullet"
17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
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Blue corner

Antonio Trocoli

"Malvado"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34