Main
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum vs Daniel Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
·Kingdom Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Daniel Rodriguez
57%
43%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
21-12
Career record
Δ 13 pp
20-6
L1
Current streak
L2
22
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gastelum: 112 sig / 4 TD ·
Rodriguez: 127 sig / 0 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Daniel Rodriguez
58
Sig strikes landed
69
134
Sig strikes attempted
135
74
Total strikes landed
89
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
83s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kelvin Gastelum
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
22 fights · 12-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
Blue corner
L2
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
20-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—