Prelims1
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast vs Jared Gordon
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
·Kingdom Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nasrat Haqparast
Jared Gordon
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
19-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-9
W3
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Haqparast: 146 sig / 0 TD ·
Gordon: 141 sig / 0 TD
Nasrat Haqparast
Jared Gordon
68
Sig strikes landed
70
151
Sig strikes attempted
136
80
Total strikes landed
88
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.5
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
21s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Nasrat Haqparast
19-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
W1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
22-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—