Prelims1
Welterweight
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Nicolas Dalby
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
·Kingdom Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Nicolas Dalby
82%
18%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
33
Age
Δ 7y
40
24-1-2
Career record
Δ 11 pp
25-6-1
D1
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Fakhretdinov: 68 sig / 5 TD ·
Dalby: 66 sig / 0 TD
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Nicolas Dalby
35
Sig strikes landed
37
80
Sig strikes attempted
82
59
Total strikes landed
58
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
314s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Rinat Fakhretdinov
"Gladiator"
24-1-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 4
D
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
Blue corner
W4
Nicolas Dalby
"Lokomotivo"
25-6-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
12 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—