Main
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich vs Alexander Volkov
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
·Kingdom Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sergei Pavlovich
Alexander Volkov
39%
61%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
21-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
41-11
L1
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pavlovich: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Volkov: 83 sig / 0 TD
Sergei Pavlovich
Alexander Volkov
38
Sig strikes landed
42
86
Sig strikes attempted
68
41
Total strikes landed
58
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
86s
Control time
27s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sergei Pavlovich
21-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
Blue corner
W3
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—