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Diego Ferreira vs Mateusz Rebecki

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento ·Enterprise Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Diego Ferreira
Mateusz Rebecki
35% 65%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 8"
66"
39
Age
Δ 8y
32
20-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
21-5
W1
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ferreira: 123 sig / 3 TD · Rebecki: 52 sig / 4 TD
Diego Ferreira
Mateusz Rebecki
49
Sig strikes landed
58
134
Sig strikes attempted
116
59
Total strikes landed
76
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
75s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Diego Ferreira

20-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
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L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
Blue corner
W3

Mateusz Rebecki

21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
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W UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—