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Main Welterweight

Joaquin Buckley vs Nursulton Ruziboev

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento ·Enterprise Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joaquin Buckley
Nursulton Ruziboev
27% 73%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
22-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
37-9-2
W3
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Buckley: 86 sig / 4 TD · Ruziboev: 31 sig / 0 TD
Joaquin Buckley
Nursulton Ruziboev
36
Sig strikes landed
36
86
Sig strikes attempted
101
41
Total strikes landed
38
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
92s
Control time
18s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Joaquin Buckley

"New Mansa"
22-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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W UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
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W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
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L UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
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L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
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Blue corner
W2

Nursulton Ruziboev

"Black"
37-9-2 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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W UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
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