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Main Heavyweight

Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento ·Enterprise Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Rodrigo Nascimento
62% 38%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
39
Age
Δ 8y
32
29-14
Career record
Δ 13 pp
12-3
L1
Current streak
W3
28
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lewis: 41 sig / 1 TD · Nascimento: 27 sig / 1 TD
Derrick Lewis
Rodrigo Nascimento
28
Sig strikes landed
32
55
Sig strikes attempted
67
42
Total strikes landed
63
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Derrick Lewis

"The Black Beast"
29-14 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 28 fights · 18-10
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
Blue corner
W3

Rodrigo Nascimento

"Ze Colmeia"
12-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—