Back to UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
Prelims1 Welterweight

Billy Ray Goff vs Trey Waters

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento ·Enterprise Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Billy Ray Goff
Trey Waters
56% 44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
10-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
10-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Goff: 116 sig / 1 TD · Waters: 96 sig / 0 TD
Billy Ray Goff
Trey Waters
64
Sig strikes landed
66
137
Sig strikes attempted
114
83
Total strikes landed
70
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
-4s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Billy Ray Goff

10-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
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Blue corner
W1

Trey Waters

"The Truth"
10-2
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
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