Back to UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Tabatha Ricci vs Tecia Pennington

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tabatha Ricci
Tecia Pennington
69% 31%
Why
61"
Reach
Δ 0"
60"
29
Age
Δ 6y
35
12-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
15-9
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
15

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ricci: 54 sig / 1 TD · Pennington: 80 sig / 0 TD
Tabatha Ricci
Tecia Pennington
64
Sig strikes landed
66
156
Sig strikes attempted
128
87
Total strikes landed
80
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
199s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
83%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Tabatha Ricci

"Baby Shark"
12-5
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
W UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
W UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
Blue corner
L1

Tecia Pennington

"Tiny Tornado"
15-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
W UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
W UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
L UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…