Prelims1
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney vs Esteban Ribovics
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
·Enterprise Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Terrance McKinney
Esteban Ribovics
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
19-8
Career record
Δ 14 pp
16-3
W2
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McKinney: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Ribovics: 5 sig / 0 TD
Terrance McKinney
Esteban Ribovics
58
Sig strikes landed
40
113
Sig strikes attempted
67
61
Total strikes landed
65
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
19-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W1
Esteban Ribovics
"El Gringo"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—