Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jonathan Pearce
David Onama
42%
58%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
14-8
Career record
Δ 20 pp
15-3
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pearce: 57 sig / 5 TD ·
Onama: 58 sig / 0 TD
Jonathan Pearce
David Onama
49
Sig strikes landed
49
108
Sig strikes attempted
102
65
Total strikes landed
64
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
198s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jonathan Pearce
"JSP"
14-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
W1
David Onama
15-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—