Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Austen Lane
Jhonata Diniz
48%
52%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 0"
80"
36
Age
Δ 4y
33
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lane: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Diniz: 20 sig / 0 TD
Austen Lane
Jhonata Diniz
24
Sig strikes landed
33
48
Sig strikes attempted
59
37
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
91s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Austen Lane
13-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
Blue corner
Jhonata Diniz
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33