Back to UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Marnic Mann vs Ketlen Souza

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez ·Meta Apex
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Marnic Mann
Ketlen Souza
39% 61%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
6-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
16-7
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mann: 31 sig / 2 TD · Souza: 80 sig / 1 TD
Marnic Mann
Ketlen Souza
44
Sig strikes landed
55
121
Sig strikes attempted
89
61
Total strikes landed
67
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
222s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marnic Mann

"The Sawed-Off Savage"
6-4
Career record
Height
60"
Reach
64"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
Blue corner
L1

Ketlen Souza

"Esquentadinha"
16-7
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—