Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
James Llontop
Chris Padilla
57%
43%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Llontop: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Padilla: 12 sig / 3 TD
James Llontop
Chris Padilla
36
Sig strikes landed
35
78
Sig strikes attempted
73
51
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
James Llontop
"Goku"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Chris Padilla
"Taco"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29