Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Don'Tale Mayes
Caio Machado
52%
48%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
11-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
8-5-1
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mayes: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Machado: 76 sig / 0 TD
Don'Tale Mayes
Caio Machado
51
Sig strikes landed
42
117
Sig strikes attempted
78
68
Total strikes landed
43
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
160s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
11-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
Blue corner
L1
Caio Machado
"Bigfoot"
8-5-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—