Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ryan Spann
Bogdan Guskov
53%
47%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
24-12
Career record
Δ 16 pp
19-3-1
L2
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Spann: 15 sig / 1 TD ·
Guskov: 31 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Spann
Bogdan Guskov
30
Sig strikes landed
26
67
Sig strikes attempted
63
41
Total strikes landed
34
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24-12
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
Blue corner
W1
Bogdan Guskov
"Hitman"
19-3-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—