Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matheus Nicolau
Alex Perez
54%
46%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
19-7-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
26-11
L1
Current streak
L3
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Nicolau: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Perez: 28 sig / 0 TD
Matheus Nicolau
Alex Perez
41
Sig strikes landed
30
86
Sig strikes attempted
78
51
Total strikes landed
43
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
106s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matheus Nicolau
19-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
Blue corner
L3
Alex Perez
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—