Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ismael Bonfim
Vinc Pichel
81%
19%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 13y
41
20-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
14-6
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bonfim: 111 sig / 1 TD ·
Pichel: 61 sig / 1 TD
Ismael Bonfim
Vinc Pichel
39
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
46
47
Total strikes landed
40
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
84s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ismael Bonfim
"Marreta"
20-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
L1
Vinc Pichel
"From Hell"
14-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—