Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alessandro Costa
Kevin Borjas
64%
36%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
15-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Costa: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Borjas: 18 sig / 0 TD
Alessandro Costa
Kevin Borjas
61
Sig strikes landed
49
132
Sig strikes attempted
127
77
Total strikes landed
60
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
15-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Kevin Borjas
"El Gallo Negro"
10-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—