Back to UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Prelims2 Women's Flyweight

Dione Barbosa vs Ernesta Kareckaite

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg ·Farmasi Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Dione Barbosa
Ernesta Kareckaite
45% 55%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barbosa: 39 sig / 2 TD · Kareckaite: 53 sig / 1 TD
Dione Barbosa
Ernesta Kareckaite
36
Sig strikes landed
38
79
Sig strikes attempted
90
67
Total strikes landed
65
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
184s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Dione Barbosa

"The Witch"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Ernesta Kareckaite

"Heavy-Handed"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26