Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mauricio Ruffy
Jamie Mullarkey
63%
37%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ruffy: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Mullarkey: 14 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Ruffy
Jamie Mullarkey
41
Sig strikes landed
44
88
Sig strikes attempted
93
52
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mauricio Ruffy
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
L1
Jamie Mullarkey
18-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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