Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Elves Brener
Myktybek Orolbai
41%
59%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
27
Age
Δ 0y
26
17-6
Career record
Δ 11 pp
17-2-1
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brener: 48 sig / 3 TD ·
Orolbai: 65 sig / 5 TD
Elves Brener
Myktybek Orolbai
33
Sig strikes landed
31
67
Sig strikes attempted
74
43
Total strikes landed
41
-0.1
Takedowns landed
2.5
0.6
Takedowns attempted
6.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
17s
Control time
301s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
43%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Elves Brener
17-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W1
Myktybek Orolbai
17-2-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—