Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Iasmin Lucindo
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Iasmin Lucindo
20%
80%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
39
Age
Δ 16y
22
17-10
Career record
Δ 13 pp
19-6
W4
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Lucindo: 83 sig / 2 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Iasmin Lucindo
75
Sig strikes landed
77
162
Sig strikes attempted
184
89
Total strikes landed
97
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
156s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
17-10
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W2
Iasmin Lucindo
19-6
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—