Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Anthony Smith
Vitor Petrino
46%
54%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
36
Age
Δ 9y
27
38-23
Career record
Δ 26 pp
15-2
L1
Current streak
W4
21
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Smith: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Petrino: 10 sig / 1 TD
Anthony Smith
Vitor Petrino
35
Sig strikes landed
41
66
Sig strikes attempted
81
41
Total strikes landed
69
0.1
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.6
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
44s
Control time
190s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
21 fights · 12-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
Blue corner
W4
Vitor Petrino
15-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—