Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Jonathan Martinez
65%
35%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
32-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-6
L1
Current streak
W6
20
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aldo: 77 sig / 1 TD ·
Martinez: 52 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Jonathan Martinez
60
Sig strikes landed
74
136
Sig strikes attempted
159
73
Total strikes landed
94
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
85s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jose Aldo
32-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
20 fights · 13-7
Last 5
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
Blue corner
W6
Jonathan Martinez
"Dragon"
20-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—