Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Igor Severino
Andre Lima
55%
45%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
21
Age
Δ 4y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
DQ · Round 2
Severino: 36 sig / 5 TD ·
Lima: 30 sig / 1 TD
Igor Severino
Andre Lima
37
Sig strikes landed
36
78
Sig strikes attempted
75
47
Total strikes landed
76
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Igor Severino
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner
Andre Lima
"Mascote"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25