Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mohammed Usman
Mick Parkin
46%
54%
Why
79"
Reach
79"
35
Age
Δ 6y
28
13-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
11-1
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Usman: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Parkin: 72 sig / 0 TD
Mohammed Usman
Mick Parkin
36
Sig strikes landed
42
83
Sig strikes attempted
75
63
Total strikes landed
54
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.5
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
177s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Mohammed Usman
"The Motor"
13-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W2
Mick Parkin
11-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—