Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edmen Shahbazyan
AJ Dobson
80%
20%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
16-6
Career record
Δ 0 pp
8-3
L1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Shahbazyan: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Dobson: 15 sig / 0 TD
Edmen Shahbazyan
AJ Dobson
49
Sig strikes landed
40
97
Sig strikes attempted
80
67
Total strikes landed
58
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Edmen Shahbazyan
"The Golden Boy"
16-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
Blue corner
W1
AJ Dobson
8-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—