Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Payton Talbott
Cameron Saaiman
69%
31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
26
Age
Δ 2y
23
12-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
9-4
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Talbott: 79 sig / 0 TD ·
Saaiman: 31 sig / 0 TD
Payton Talbott
Cameron Saaiman
40
Sig strikes landed
35
79
Sig strikes attempted
71
52
Total strikes landed
50
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
232s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Payton Talbott
12-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
Blue corner
L1
Cameron Saaiman
"MSP"
9-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—