Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karl Williams
Justin Tafa
72%
28%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
11-2
Career record
Δ 23 pp
8-5
W2
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Williams: 40 sig / 7 TD ·
Tafa: 21 sig / 0 TD
Karl Williams
Justin Tafa
45
Sig strikes landed
27
78
Sig strikes attempted
56
67
Total strikes landed
41
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
195s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Karl Williams
11-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
Blue corner
W3
Justin Tafa
"Bad Man"
8-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—