Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fernando Padilla
Luis Pajuelo
72%
28%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Padilla: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Pajuelo: 5 sig / 0 TD
Fernando Padilla
Luis Pajuelo
56
Sig strikes landed
36
125
Sig strikes attempted
79
66
Total strikes landed
39
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
86s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Fernando Padilla
"El Valiente"
16-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
Blue corner
Luis Pajuelo
"Corazon de Leon"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29