Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kurt Holobaugh
Trey Ogden
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
38
Age
Δ 3y
34
23-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holobaugh: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Ogden: 35 sig / 3 TD
Kurt Holobaugh
Trey Ogden
60
Sig strikes landed
61
137
Sig strikes attempted
141
80
Total strikes landed
82
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
129s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
23-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
L1
Trey Ogden
"Shamurai"
18-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—