Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Moises
Mitch Ramirez
69%
31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
L1
Current streak
—
11
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Moises: 25 sig / 2 TD ·
Ramirez: 16 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Moises
Mitch Ramirez
33
Sig strikes landed
30
73
Sig strikes attempted
66
49
Total strikes landed
42
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
194s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Moises
19-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
Blue corner
Mitch Ramirez
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31