Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jafel Filho
Ode Osbourne
74%
26%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-5
Career record
Δ 22 pp
13-10
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Filho: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Osbourne: 0 sig / 0 TD
Jafel Filho
Ode Osbourne
27
Sig strikes landed
24
72
Sig strikes attempted
58
39
Total strikes landed
37
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
164s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jafel Filho
"Pastor"
18-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
L1
Ode Osbourne
"The Jamaican Sensation"
13-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—