Main
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert vs Bryan Barberena
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gerald Meerschaert
Bryan Barberena
80%
20%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
37-23
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-13
L2
Current streak
L3
19
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Meerschaert: 11 sig / 3 TD ·
Barberena: 12 sig / 0 TD
Gerald Meerschaert
Bryan Barberena
52
Sig strikes landed
61
111
Sig strikes attempted
109
61
Total strikes landed
74
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
126s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
19 fights · 10-9
Last 5
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
Blue corner
L3
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
18-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
18 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—