Back to UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Pedro Falcao vs Victor Hugo

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Pedro Falcao
Victor Hugo
32% 68%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
32
Age
Δ 0y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Falcao: 42 sig / 1 TD · Hugo: 68 sig / 0 TD
Pedro Falcao
Victor Hugo
35
Sig strikes landed
41
74
Sig strikes attempted
84
46
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
116s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Pedro Falcao

"Pedrinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Victor Hugo

"Striker"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31