Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dan Argueta
Jean Matsumoto
27%
73%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Argueta: 14 sig / 9 TD ·
Matsumoto: 19 sig / 2 TD
Dan Argueta
Jean Matsumoto
34
Sig strikes landed
36
68
Sig strikes attempted
69
56
Total strikes landed
61
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
213s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dan Argueta
"The Determined"
9-3
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
Blue corner
Jean Matsumoto
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25