Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dylan Budka
Cesar Almeida
66%
34%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
24
Age
Δ 12y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Budka: 1 sig / 3 TD ·
Almeida: 29 sig / 0 TD
Dylan Budka
Cesar Almeida
38
Sig strikes landed
36
77
Sig strikes attempted
68
45
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dylan Budka
"The Mindless Hulk"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
Blue corner
Cesar Almeida
"Cesinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36