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Alexander Hernandez vs Damon Jackson

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Damon Jackson
47% 53%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
18-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
23-9-1
L1
Current streak
L2
12
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Hernandez: 32 sig / 0 TD · Jackson: 42 sig / 3 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Damon Jackson
45
Sig strikes landed
42
95
Sig strikes attempted
93
54
Total strikes landed
59
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.9
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
51s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Alexander Hernandez

"El Gran Chango"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
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W UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
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L UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
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L UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
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Blue corner
L2

Damon Jackson

"The Leech"
23-9-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database 11 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
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