Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brendan Allen
Chris Curtis
71%
29%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
28
Age
Δ 8y
37
27-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
33-13
W6
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Allen: 112 sig / 6 TD ·
Curtis: 124 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Allen
Chris Curtis
68
Sig strikes landed
41
141
Sig strikes attempted
85
75
Total strikes landed
56
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.5
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
159s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Brendan Allen
"All In"
27-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
13 fights · 11-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
33-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—