Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jalin Turner
Renato Moicano
48%
52%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
29
Age
Δ 6y
35
16-9
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-7-1
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Turner: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Moicano: 36 sig / 2 TD
Jalin Turner
Renato Moicano
48
Sig strikes landed
49
111
Sig strikes attempted
93
59
Total strikes landed
56
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
71s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jalin Turner
"The Tarantula"
16-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
Blue corner
W2
Renato Moicano
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—