Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Justin Gaethje
Max Holloway
61%
39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
28-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
28-9
W2
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Gaethje: 103 sig / 0 TD ·
Holloway: 181 sig / 0 TD
Justin Gaethje
Max Holloway
99
Sig strikes landed
143
200
Sig strikes attempted
276
109
Total strikes landed
142
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.70
57s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W2
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
28 fights · 21-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—