Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Arman Tsarukyan
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 7y
28
38-11
Career record
Δ 11 pp
24-3
W1
Current streak
W3
32
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Oliveira: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Tsarukyan: 49 sig / 2 TD
Charles Oliveira
Arman Tsarukyan
27
Sig strikes landed
42
70
Sig strikes attempted
75
37
Total strikes landed
78
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
84s
Control time
303s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
32 fights · 22-9
Last 5
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
Blue corner
W3
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
24-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—