Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Calvin Kattar
Aljamain Sterling
33%
67%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
23-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
26-6
L2
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kattar: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Sterling: 39 sig / 8 TD
Calvin Kattar
Aljamain Sterling
57
Sig strikes landed
82
144
Sig strikes attempted
150
73
Total strikes landed
105
0.1
Takedowns landed
2.4
0.0
Takedowns attempted
8.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
37s
Control time
234s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Calvin Kattar
23-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
L1
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
19 fights · 15-4
Last 5
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—