Prelims1
Featherweight
Dennis Buzukja vs Connor Matthews
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
·Boardwalk Hall
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dennis Buzukja
Connor Matthews
73%
27%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
26
Age
Δ 5y
32
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Buzukja: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Matthews: 60 sig / 1 TD
Dennis Buzukja
Connor Matthews
31
Sig strikes landed
33
70
Sig strikes attempted
61
53
Total strikes landed
46
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
203s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Dennis Buzukja
"The Great"
12-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
Connor Matthews
"The Controller"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32